REOI MD-OEAPM-523168-CS-CQS Consulting services for provision of consulting services on development of fiscal risk assessment of disasters in Republic of Moldova

REQUEST FOR EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST

(CONSULTING SERVICES - FIRMS SELECTION)

Republic of Moldova

Strengthening Moldova’s Disaster Risk Management and Resilience Project

Loan No.: 9720-MD

Assignment Title: Consulting services for provision of consulting services on development of fiscal risk assessment of disasters in Republic of Moldova

 

Reference No. (as per Procurement Plan): MD-OEAPM-523168-CS-CQS

The Government of the Republic of Moldova has received financing from the World Bank toward the cost of the Strengthening Moldova’s Disaster Risk Management and Resilience Project, and intends to apply part of the proceeds for consulting services.

The consulting services (“the Services”) include provision of Consulting services for provision of consulting services on development of fiscal risk assessment of disasters in Republic of Moldova.

The Terms of Reference (TOR) for the primary procurement stage for the assignment are attached to this request for expressions of interest.

The P.I. “Office for External Assistance Programs Management” (OEAPM) Project Implementation Unit (PIU) now invites eligible consulting firms (“Consultants”) to indicate their interest in providing the Services. Interested Consultants should provide information demonstrating that they have the required qualifications and relevant experience to perform the Services. Consultant/firm’s shortlisting criteria are at least 7 (seven) years of following qualifications and experience:

Key Experts will not be evaluated at the shortlisting stage.

The attention of interested Consultants is drawn to Section III, paragraphs, 3.14, 3.16, and 3.17 of the World Bank’s “Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers” September 2023 (“Procurement Regulations”), setting forth the World Bank’s policy on conflict of interest.

Consultants may associate with other firms to enhance their qualifications, but should indicate clearly whether the association is in the form of a joint venture and/or a sub-consultancy. In the case of a joint venture, all the partners in the joint venture shall be jointly and severally liable for the entire contract, if selected.

A Consultant will be selected in accordance with the „Consultant’s Qualification-based Selection” described in the Procurement Regulations and to be specifically set out in the Request for Proposals.

The Expression of Interest shall clearly state the name of the Consultant (individual Firm, Joint Venture or sub-consultancy). The Consultant shall provide relevant references (assignment name, Client, time frame, the role of the firm (main Consultant/Partner in JV/sub-consultant, contract amount, tasks performed etc.) to confirm its experience and qualifications.

Further information can be obtained at the address below during office hours 08:30 to 17:30 hours.

Expressions of interest must be delivered in a written form to the address below (in person, or by mail, or by e-mail) by 17:30 local time, February 27, 2026.

Attn: Ms. Raisa CANTEMIR

Director, Office for External Assistance Programs Management / PIU

57/1 Mitropolitul Banulescu Bodoni str., office 306, MD-2005, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova

Tel: 373 22 23 29 63, 373 23 82 48

E-mail: achizitii.proiecte@ogpae.gov.md

www.ogpae.gov.md

 

Republic of Moldova

Strengthening Moldova’s Disaster Risk Management

And Climate Resilience Project

 

Terms of Reference

for provision of consulting services on development of fiscal risk

assessment of disasters in Republic of Moldova

 

General information

 The Government of the Republic of Moldova is implementing the Strengthening Moldova’s Disaster Risk Management and Climate Resilience Project (SMORE) financed by the World Bank, that aims to enhance Moldova’s preparedness and response to natural hazards and climate-related shocks, and in case of an eligible crisis or emergency, respond promptly and effectively to it.

The Strengthening Moldova’s Disaster Risk Management and Climate Resilience Project comprises 5 components including Component 3: Policy and Regulatory Support for Risk Reduction of Critical Infrastructure and Fiscal Resilience, with 2 subcomponents:

• Subcomponent 3.1: Policy, Regulatory, and Feasibility Study Support to Reduce Seismic Risk,
• Subcomponent 3.2: Financial Protection to Mitigate Disaster Impacts.

The P.I. “Office of External Assistance Programs Management” (OEAPM) under the Ministry of Finance will have the role of the Project Implementation Unit (PIU).

The Ministry of Finance (MoF) is the beneficiary of all consultancies within Subcomponent 3.2, which will support the ministry to undertake disaster risk finance reforms in Moldova to reduce the post-disaster funding gap, and improve the management of disaster related contingent liabilities.

The Subcomponent will support activities to increase financial protection to mitigate disaster impacts through (i) improvement or redesign of the existing MoF Emergency Funds (Reserve Fund and Intervention Fund), or (ii) design of a new accumulating disaster reserve fund and (iii) preparation of a methodology for assessment of fiscal risks related to natural disasters to be disclosed as part of the government Fiscal Risk Statement.

In this context, the Ministry of Finance intends to hire a consultant (firm) who will provide consulting services on development of fiscal risk assessment of disasters in Republic of Moldova.

Objective of the consultancy

 The objective of the assignment is to provide consulting services on the development of fiscal risk assessment of natural calamities and disasters in Republic of Moldova, which the Ministry of Finance (MoF) will be able to use in the future.

This work will include the following assignments:

• Development a methodology to assess the fiscal impacts of natural disasters, which can be applied to a sample of scenarios, to manage various financial risk factors;
• Preparation of the Fiscal Risk Statement section (Fiscal Risk Framework Model Preparation Tool); and
• Capacity building. The Consultant will present the results of the assessment to the Ministry of Finance and ensure availability of guidance materials for further use of the tool, as well as conduct the necessary set of training activities for MoF and other key stakeholders.

 

Scope of work

 

In performing the tasks, the Consultant will rely on all available data (MoF relevant documents; strategies, policies, statistical data, existing modelling; good practices adapted to the conditions of the Republic of Moldova). For all tasks listed, the Consultant will collaborate closely with the MoF, PIU and other interested government entities.

 

The following tasks must be accomplished:

3.1 Inception Report

 At the outset of this assignment, the Consultant is to prepare an Inception Report, including a proposed work plan, implementation schedule, a brief quality assurance plan outlining internal review procedures and responsibilities and outlining data needs, sources and limitations for undertaking the assignment. The Inception Report should be submitted within the first 2 weeks for MoF and PIU review and approval.

 3.2 Develop a Methodology for Assessing the Fiscal Impacts of Natural Disasters, including the Evaluation of a Set of Disaster Scenarios

The Consultant will develop a methodology to assess the fiscal impact of disasters on the Government’s financial position. The methodology will be structured around the following tasks:

Probabilistic Risk Modelling and Historical Event Analysis: The Consultant will base the fiscal risk assessment on probabilistic risk modelling results, using indicators such as average annual loss (AAL) and probably maximum loss estimates for selected return periods to quantify the potential impacts on the state budget. Historical data related to past disaster events in Moldova, together with available fiscal data (e.g., post-disaster expenditures, revenue shortfalls, borrowing, research studies), will be used to benchmark and validate the probabilistic outputs. The historical analysis should confirm whether modelled results are broadly consistent with observed experience, help refine key assumptions where appropriate, and provide contextual narrative on how disasters have previously affected the state budget in the past.

Risk Identification and Quantification. Building on the probabilistic modelling and supported by historical benchmarking, the Consultant will identify and quantify all major disaster risks in Moldova (for example, but not limited to, floods, droughts and earthquakes). Using model outputs such as average annual loss (AAL) and return periods (e.g., 1-in-25-year, 1-in-50-year, and 1-in-100-year events at a minimum), the Consultant will derive the Government’s contingent liabilities by identifying the share of losses that could fall on the public finances. This should include an assessment of the expected human, environmental and economic damages and losses which could affect the budget, key sector-specific and population-group specific impacts in the context of Moldova, and the likely fiscal impacts, including from (i) increased fiscal spending on immediate response and relief, obligations arising from state-owned enterprises and public private partnerships, and on longer-term recovery and reconstruction, and (ii) from reduced fiscal space due to revenue losses and increased public debt. These estimates and analysis should then be used to estimate the Government’s potential contingent liabilities.

Scenario Development. Based on the quantified probabilistic risk results, the Consultant will develop a set of disaster scenarios representing different levels of severity and probability. These scenarios should model fiscal impacts over time, capturing both immediate and longer-term effects. Scenarios must be developed in consultation with the Ministry of Finance and the World Bank.

Fiscal Impact Assessment. Using the probabilistic model outputs and the agreed scenarios, he Consultant will apply a methodology to quantify the fiscal consequences based on the developed scenarios. The assessment will cover both direct costs (e.g., emergency expenditures, asset losses) and indirect impacts (e.g., reduced revenues, diversion of public funds from key services and investments, broader economic disruption), considering short, medium, and long-term horizons. In addition to expenditure and revenue effects, the assessment should evaluate implications for debt levels, contingent liabilities, and other key fiscal indicators. Results should be contextualized with reference to historical case studies, while also taking into account potential future developments such as climate change and urbanization trends in Republic of Moldova.

Sensitivity Analysis and Disaster Risk Financing Instruments. The Consultant will conduct sensitivity analysis to assess how key assumptions influence fiscal outcomes. This will include an evaluation of how changes in the design, scale, or uptake of specific disaster risk financing (DRF) instruments under consideration by the Government— such as the existing Reserve and Intervention Funds, a redesign of the Intervention Fund or introduction of a new accumulating reserve fund, contingent credit, or sovereign insurance—affect fiscal volatility and preparedness.

Provision of the Assessment Tool and Initial Results. Following completion of the sensitivity analysis, the Consultant will deliver an excel-based Assessment Tool that follows the agreed methodology and incorporates the probabilistic risk modelling results, scenario analysis, and the results of sensitivity testing. A draft version of the Tool will be shared with the Ministry of Finance for review and feedback before finalization and will be accompanied by a user guide, either embedded in the tool or provided as a separate manual. The Tool must be designed so that the Ministry of Finance can update probabilistic inputs and re-run scenarios in future years.

Data Gaps and Interpretation of Results. The Consultant will review the adequacy of available data sources and identify any significant gaps that may limit the robustness of the fiscal risk assessment (e.g., incomplete information on revenues, assets, or post-disaster expenditures). The Consultant will provide recommendations on how to improve data quality, data capture and management practices to improve future fiscal risk assessments. In parallel, the Consultant will also work with the MoF to translate the quantitative results into practical insights that can be meaningfully integrated into budget planning and shape policy decisions.

3.3 Delivery of the Results and Reporting

 

Technical Report and supporting materials. The Consultant will prepare a comprehensive Technical Report documenting the methodology, data sources, scenario development, fiscal impact assessment, sensitivity analysis, and findings. This report will be developed in three steps (Initial report, Draft Assessment Tool and Interim Results, Technical report and supporting materials), and will include:

• A step-by-step guide on how to use the Excel-based Assessment Tool;
• Worked examples illustrating the application of the methodology;
• Analysis of key fiscal indicators, contingent liabilities, and the role of DRF instruments; and
• Recommendations on data gaps and improvements to future data capture and data system development.

The Technical Report will be accompanied by:

• The finalized Excel Assessment Tool and user guide;
• All supporting datasets, spreadsheets, and calculations; and
• A PowerPoint presentation summarizing main findings and recommendations, including an explanation of how hazard scenarios and exposure channels can be adjusted for future use.

 

b. Preparation of the fiscal risk section of the statement. Based on the Fiscal Impact Assessment, the Consultant will coordinate with MoF to prepare a draft wording for inclusion in the Government’s Fiscal Risk Statement. The text should clearly describe the risk assessment approach, underlying assumptions, key fiscal impact channels, and quantified results. The Consultant will prepare:

• a version suitable for direct inclusion in the Statement, and
• a reusable template that MoF can apply in future reporting cycles.

c. Capacity building, Training, and Knowledge Transfer. The Consultant will deliver structured capacity-building activities to ensure that MoF staff can independently apply and regularly update the methodology and Assessment tool. This will include:

• Training sessions and on-the-job training for MoF staff and other key stakeholders;
• Guidance materials (slides, manuals, exercises) to support ongoing independent application of the tool; and
• A Training and Guidance package ensuring MoF can update and apply the methodology in subsequent years.

Duration of consulting services

Assignment Period. The duration of the consulting services is six months.

Assignment Location. The Consultant may perform the assignment both at the premises of the MoF (beneficiary) and remotely and will be expected to participate in meetings and workshops organized by the Ministry and other relevant institutions. The Consultant will work closely with the MoF, PIU and other stakeholders throughout the duration of the assignment, and participate in two in-person engagements (e.g., inception meeting and final results workshop), with other meetings held online unless otherwise agreed. At all times, the Consultant is expected to exercise due diligence in the use of office resources and equipment, and to avoid any potential incidents or accidents in her/ his activity. The tasks required are in the normal regular office activities type range, but if any activity will require personal protection equipment, this will be provided by the Client.

Start date. The assignment expected to start in February 2026, or another date agreed with the MoF.

5. Qualification requirements. The Consultant will be a firm or a consotium of firms, possesing proven expirience in performing similar assignments with the following qualifications and experience:

The Consultant must possess the following qualifications and expirience:

• Proven macroeconomic modeling experience, with acturial expertise as a plus 
• Good understanding of public financial management/applying economic models to fiscal aspects, with the knowledge of Moldova PFM framework as a plus
• Proven understanding of disaster risk and ability to interpret /use the results of probabilistic cat risk models

 Qualification requirements for key experts

The Consultant (firm) shall propose a team capable of delivering all tasks described in this TOR. While only key experts will be evaluated during the selection process, the Consultant may include additional optional experts in the proposal to demonstrate technical depth and ensure effective delivery.

 The Consultant team should consist of:

Senior Economist (Lead Modelling Expert)

• Master's degee or higher in economics, public finance, actuarial science, or related field.
• Minimum 10 years of experience in macroeconomic or fiscal modelling, including the application of models to assess fiscal risks.
• Demonstrated experience using probabilistic disaster risk modelling outputs (e.g. AAL, return-period losses) to quantify fiscal impacts.
• Proven ability to interpret catastrophe risk data and integrate hazard/exposure/vulnerability information into fiscal or macro-fiscal analysis.
• Experience assessing disaster impacts on public finances, including revenue volatility, expenditure pressures, budget execution, reallocations, emergency, appropriations, and contingent liabilities.
• Experience applying scenario analysis and fiscal stress testing approaches.
• Strong quantitative and analytical skills, including advanced Excel.
• Excellent communication skills and demonstrated ability to present technical findings to government stakeholders.
• Strong organisational skills and ability to coordinate technical workstreams.
• Familiarity with Moldova's PFM and DRM systems are an advantage.
• Fluency in English language.
• Fluency in Romanian language is an advantage.   

The Consultant is expected to work approximately 100 working days within 180 calendar days.

Supporting Economist or Actuary (or equivalent expertise)

• University degree in economics, actuarial science, finance, public administration, statistics, mathematics, or a related field (master’s degree an advantage).
• Minimum 5 years of experience in economic or actuarial analysis relevant to fiscal risk assessment, catastrophe risk analytics, or disaster risk finance.
• Experience working with quantitative datasets and modelling tools, including interpretation of AAL and return-period loss estimates.
• Demonstrated experience conducting scenario analysis to assess financial or fiscal impacts.
• Experience supporting the development of fiscal risk assessments, including analysis of revenue, expenditure, or budget execution data.
• Strong analytical skills and advanced Excel or modelling capabilities.
• Ability to synthesise technical information and support communication with government stakeholders.
• Fluency in English language.
• Fluency in Romanian language is an advantage.

The Consultant is expected to work approximately 100 working days within 180 calendar days.

Note: In accordance with the sequence of tasks and the effort required, some of the experts may be assigned for partial time throughout the contract period. 

Reporting requirements and Deliverables

 

The Consultant will report to the MoF and PIU and will deliver the following documents and products:

No	Reports and deliverables	Timeline (initial draft / final version)	Share of the deliverable in total cost of the lumpsum service contract
1	Inception Report including: a)    Work plan and implementation schedule. b)    Quality assurance plan (review procedures, responsibilities). c)     Identification of data needs, sources and limitations for the assignment.	Day 10 (initial draft) Day 15 (final version)	10%
2	Initial Report including: a)    Review and analysis of historical disaster events and fiscal impacts. b)    Overview of available quantitative assessments of major disaster risks. c)     Proposed methodology for fiscal impact assessment (risk quantification, scenario design, contingent liability estimation). Proposed approach for sensitivity analysis and integration of DRF instruments.	Day 45 (initial draft) Day 60 (final version)	15%
3	Draft Assessment Tool and Interim Results including: a)    Excel-based Assessment Tool (draft version). b)    Step-by-step user guide (embedded or standalone). c)     Worked example illustrating methodology d)    Interim results from scenario analysis and sensitivity testing . e)     MoF/PIU review workshop to gather feedback	Day 75 (initial draft) Day 100 (final version)	20%
4	Technical Report and Supporting Materials including: a)     Finalized methodology and fiscal impact assessment, including direct and indirect fiscal impacts, contingent liabilities, debt implications, and key fiscal indicators. b)    Results of scenario analysis and sensitivity testing. c)     Analysis of contingent liabilities and DRF instrument options. d)    Recommendations on data gaps, data system improvements, and interpretation of quantitative results. e)     Finalized Excel Assessment Tool (revised) and user guide . f)      Supporting datasets and spreadsheets PowerPoint presentation of findings and recommendations.	Day 120 (initial draft) Day 135 (final version)	25%
5	Contribution to Fiscal Risk Statement including: a)    Draft wording for inclusion in Government’s Fiscal Risk Statement. b)    Reusable template for future reporting cycles.	Day 150 (initial draft) Day 160 (final version)	15 %
6	Capacity Building, Training, and Final Package including: a)    Training sessions and on-the-job training for MoF staff and key stakeholders. b)    Guidance materials (slides, manuals, exercises) to support ongoing independent use of the tool. c)     Final “Training and Guidance Package” to ensure MoF can independently apply and update the tool. d)    Clean versions of all reports and deliverables (in editable formats). e)     Final Excel Tool and supporting data files f)      Summary note of all activities and outputs delivered. g)    Final stakeholder workshop to present consolidated results.	Day 165 (initial draft) Day 180 (final version)	15 %
	Total days (6 months):	180 days	100 %

As indicated in the table, initial draft reports must be submitted to the MoF and PIU for review and feedback. The Consultant will incorporate the provided comments before submitting the final versions, which should be confirmed by MoF as acceptable.

The Consultant’s reports shall include names, titles, address of delivery, frequency of report, date of submission, team composition, tasks and sub-components, due dates, status of performance, conclusions, problems, recommendations and corrective actions taken.

Reports shall be submitted in English and Romanian languages. All deliverables including documents, information, work files, databases, tables, and related systems automation data shall also be provided to MoF.

Electronic data formats shall be compatible with the latest versions of Microsoft Office Suite and any other data formats acceptable to MoF and PIU.

                                                            

 

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